Accumulate Bitcoin below the market's own average — over the whole cycle.
Rules-based cycle accumulation that deploys capital into statistical dips, not the calendar. Over a ~8-year backtested cycle it accumulated at an average cost of $7,173 per BTC — 53.6% below calendar DCA ($15,462), 75.1% below the period VWAP ($28,819). Non-custodial — you hold your own BTC.
The proof — avg cost vs benchmark, every number from the public preview
On the backtested reference basket the program deployed 818 times across the cycle, holding 28.7756 BTC at an average cost of $7,172.66. Avg cost vs each benchmark, reproducible from the public endpoint:
Lump-sum and HODL comparisons are timing-dependent. The benchmark that generalises is dip-weighted entry vs a calendar DCA schedule: 53.6% cheaper at $7,173 vs $15,462. As of 2026-04-02.
Model your own treasury
Change the inputs and the same backtested deployment logic replays on your basket, re-rendering all three charts and every headline figure. Every output is reproducible from the public https://signals.btcalpha.com.au/v1/program/preview/simulate endpoint.
The DCA benchmark uses your exact contribution schedule — same cadence, same dollars; the only difference is dip-timing vs buying on the calendar date. Switch the frequency to weekly, biweekly, or monthly and the DCA line re-computes to your schedule.
Re-run the whole cycle on your numbers.
Set your starting capital, contributions and cash reserve. We replay the same backtested deployment logic on your inputs and re-render every chart and headline below — server-side, from the same public endpoint you can curl yourself.
Price + every deployment
The program buys statistical dips — markers cluster in the troughs, coloured by tier, sized by depth.
818 deployments over the cycle. The program buys into statistical dips — markers cluster in the troughs, not the peaks.
Capital in → BTC out
Hands-off accumulation: contributions convert to a growing BTC position across the cycle.
Left axis: BTC accumulated. Right axis: cumulative capital deployed. Hands-off, the position compounds across the cycle.
Cost basis below benchmark
Your running average cost stays under calendar DCA — the shaded gap is the edge you keep.
The program's running average cost (amber) holds below naive calendar DCA (blue). The green band is the gap you keep — every BTC bought cheaper.
How it deploys — three horizons
Deployments are graded across three horizons. Deeper statistical dips draw larger deployments; the markers on the price chart are coloured and sized to match.
The backbone — broad, patient deployments that build the long-horizon position.
Cycle-aware adds that lean in when the market drifts below its own longer trend.
Opportunistic, deeper deployments reserved for the sharpest statistical dips.
818 graded deployments over the backtested cycle. Non-custodial — the program emits the signal; your BTC never leaves your control.
Run it on your own treasury
The preview is free to inspect and reproduce. When you want the program running live on your accumulation, that's the product: a deployment signal as each dip qualifies. You buy on your own venue, at your own size, holding your own BTC — we only send the signal. Request-based.
email us · backtested / modelled historical data, provisional, not advice
Every figure on this page is backtested / modelled on historical data, computed by the verification engine (backtested), and provisional. The simulator replays the same logic on your inputs — it is a model of the past, not a forecast. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The program is backtested and engine-verified — the portable engine is bit-exact versus the canonical reference port. Its allocation logic is independently verified against a hand-authored TradingView indicator — 94% of deploys land on the same bar at the same price. It is still not one of the dual-verified signal strategies: verification_state: engine_backtested, tv_status: provisional — the historical avg cost and DCA-savings figures are engine-backtested, not independently TradingView-verified. It is non-custodial — a data signal only; your funds never leave your control, we hold no custody, and we place no trades on your behalf. If BTC Alpha ceases operation you lose a data feed, not your assets(we commit to ≥30 days' notice before any wind-down). Not advice, not a recommendation, not a forecast.
BTC Alpha is operated by Thomas (Tom) Makin — Founder & Principal, ISI Australia Pty Ltd · ABN 27 652 105 345. Factual historical data, backtested / modelled, provisional — not advice.